Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Inman: Lean times for lenders

A very nice overview of the likely short-term future of the mortgage lending business was recently penned by Inman News' Matt Carter.

Highlights: MBA says originations down 11% in 2007 (better than the 40% drop we've seen predicted by this group in the recent past). Refi's drying up, but still to account for nearly 40% of the business by 2008. Center for Responsible Lending is predicting 20% foreclosure rate in the subprime business (would be great for their agenda, but the industry can't afford that and would begin getting very creative with workouts, so I wouldn't bet on this). Generally gloomy, turning darker before it gets better.

I also have to agree with Mark Dangelo. Our capital markets are now sophisticated enough that there is unlikely to be a subprime credit crunch, despite rising delinquencies and innovative (read weird) loan programs.

I generally count on Inman to provide good coverage of the real estate side of the business, but this article indicates they could be a future force on the mortgage side as well. Well done.