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Risk on the Horizon

As we look ahead to the coming year, it's natural to wish that we had the equivalent of a meteorologist who can tell us what the weather will be like in the future. What can we expect and what should we do in response? Will lenders need an umbrella next year? A hurricane shelter?

The buzz I got back from contacts who attended MBA annual suggests that there is already some unrest in the industry. Some companies are battening down their hatches, even if that means cutting staff loose in anticipation of rough weather ahead.

But are these concerns well founded? Let's take a closer look.

The Signs We’re Seeing
Before we can make a reasonable forecast, we need to survey how the industry is doing now.

Existing home sales have been decreasing, and have now hit a 3-year low. As of October 2018, sales are 4.1% lower than in September 2017. Most are blaming rising interest rates for this trend. And of course, a decrease in home sales always spells a decrease in loans closed.

Another fac…

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